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Cake day: July 10th, 2023





  • Knowledge is what happens when you’ve evaluated enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis that something is false. If you haven’t seen the evidence, but still think it’s true or false (you don’t lack belief), then you have a belief about it. As such, knowledge is a type of belief with extra justification.

    If I’ve reviewed enough evidence I’m comfortable saying I can reject the null hypothesis, that is I have a belief that it’s knowledge, I’ll call it as such. If I haven’t, I’ll couch my confidence in my belief accordingly.


  • I think he might actually be worse off with a hundred billion pennies for the full billion dollars. Not only would dealing with that many pennies in one place legitimately be challenging, but having that percentage of the total pennies in circulation suddenly removed could be enough to get the US Government to reconsider deprecating them, leaving him with the bag.

    I say give him the full billion in pennies.



  • I’ve been thinking about this for a minute, and I think a good standard here is making a list of (relatively) non-overlapping causes of death that have claimed over a billion human lives.

    Infectious disease is almost certainly at least one entry on this list, primarily secular war as well, starvation/famine probably a few times over, cancer and heart disease are probably distinct entries, and death attempting to grow/hunt food. I suspect deaths by religion could be on that list as well, but it’s the entry I’m least confident in.

    In every sense of the word, this is a bad list to be on, but I don’t think religion is near the biggest culprit on the list, even if you do a lot of special pleading, and group all deaths by religious cause together, but split each disease, war, etc up for some reason.


  • I mean some states have odd year elections for local issues, etc. After the precious election, they should do their diligence to find anyone who should no longer be registered, like people who they believe have died, or shouldn’t have been eligible to register. Anyone purged should get a courtesy notice via email or mail just in case.

    Recounts happen sometimes, etc, so anytime between mid November and early January seems perfectly reasonable to me.





  • Even the most skilled money saver in the world, when their income is barely above their necessary life expenses, will fail to save much. Savings is a luxury only the rich can afford much of.

    But you’re right, putting money into the hands of people living paycheck to paycheck, or barely able to save is great for the economy as well as those people personally. Even if they save 10% and spend 90%, it’s tremendously more beneficial than that money going to a wealthy multimillionaire who won’t even notice saving it. For everyone except the multimillionaire, who really isn’t negatively impacted.


  • Yeah don’t listen to Dave Ramsey. I remember hearing him speak on TV as a kid and something just felt off about him, but not quite as bad as Suze Orman.

    I don’t think he’s a scammer, and some of the stuff he says is perfectly sensible and useful, but he (a boomer) also gives advice that isn’t how he got rich, to millennials and co, who will never ever get rich following it. Structurally that makes him pretty out of touch, and suggests anyone who listens to him should do so critically.

    That’s putting aside that he’s also kind of just telling people to do capitalism harder, and everything that comes with that.


  • The 3% is a reason to be skeptical, but doesn’t necessarily refute the 99% claim. A person can be a Native American, part of their community, and have a grandparent who was an immigrant. 2/3 of them at minimum would need to have a similar situation at minimum, but it’s less than the percent who live outside reservations (78%) so it doesn’t seem totally far-fetched. It seems high though to be sure